Welcome to Golden Rock Research by Timothy Chilleri.
Golden Rock Research provides comprehensive primary research, analysis and commentary in the world of uranium and the nuclear fuel cycle. Every Sunday, our free newsletter summarizes the most relevant topics in the past week and our views on how they could impact the market.
About the Author
Timothy Chilleri is a private investor and consultant. He has spent his entire career in commodity markets, most recently as an analyst for Sachem Cove Partners, a dedicated uranium hedge fund. Prior to this, he was a physical commodity trader for Olam International, Red River Foods and Interra International. He started his career as a futures and options broker for Daniels Trading.
Why Subscribe?
‘GRR Weekly Roundup’ will be released every Sunday and will always remain free to read. Rather than regurgitate quarterly earnings/updates, our goal is to communicate how we think about the topic by incorporating our years of experience in the industry to connect dots, highlight relevant concepts that might not be self-evident and/or provide commentary that we think is not obvious to the average reader. If you missed our May 25th Weekly Roundup, you can read it here.
‘Deep Dives’ will be released at least twice a month on for paid subscribers. Fundamental research pieces that cover supply, demand, the fuel cycle or company-specific research 2-3 times per month. We want to release as much deep and meaningful content as we can, but at the right frequency. The fundamental supply/demand picture forms the basis of our work. In some recent Deep Dives, we wrote about Kazakhstan Supply and Boss Energy.
‘Intraweek Commentary/Analysis’ will be market dependent for paid subscribers. As readers are well aware, some events or news require immediate attention and will be shared with subscribers as soon as possible. These events range from capital raises, Sprott Uranium Trust Raises $25.55M at NAV or Concerns in Kazakhstan. There will be no set frequency or timing as nobody knows when the next relevant topic will come to the market. But, we know there will be many and it will be our job to break down how we see it and share it with subscribers as soon as we can.
‘Substack Chats’ will be started in conjunction with any ‘Deep Dive’ and ‘Intraweek Commentary/ Analysis’ releases so paid subscribers can have a specific place to share feedback, ask questions and engage in a deeper and more nuanced conversation. The goal is to ultimately add depth to these topics so subscribers get more holistic view on the topic at hand.
‘Multimedia Content’ like videos and short podcasts (actually relevant content - not 60 minutes of talking that nobody has time for) which we think we help add nuance over just a written format for paid subscribers.
What is the kind of research topics can paid subscribers expect?
Supply/Demand Fundamentals
We will keep an updated ‘Supply’ and ‘Demand’ Model that is released every quarter. The ‘Base-Case’ will always be reactor consumption (demand) vs. primary and secondary supplies through 2040.
We will also look to release an ‘Alternate-Case’ which will include various different supply and demand scenarios. We want our subscribers to be well versed in the assets that produce uranium and those that can impact future supply. As we stated in different pieces so far, we believe this is path-dependent trade and we will spend a lot of time putting on our thinking and creative caps showing different supply/demand scenarios.
Country Deep Dives. Beyond just laying out what we believe are forecasted numbers, we want to understand the jurisdiction that produces and/or consumes uranium. Our first Deep Dive was ‘Kazakhstan Supply’. Please click here to access to get a sense of how we will cover them.
Fuel Cycle Fundamentals
It is very important that investors are well versed in conversion and enrichment. We feel this part of the market is highly underdiscussed but extremely important as the dynamics in this part of the fuel cycle impact the procurement cycle for utilities. Investing in uranium without understanding conversion and enrichment is like trying to drive a car without a steering wheel, sure you might drive down the road for a little while but we’re confident you will crash into a tree sooner rather than later.
Recently, we have seen investors debate a narrative that is categorically wrong around tight western conversion capacities leading to a lack of western uranium term contracting. But, when we lay out the western conversion S/D, we see that this is a false narrative and that any small western conversion deficits will be solved through spot conversion pricing. Please click here to access.
Equities Coverage List
We recently released our ‘Equity Coverage List’ and will be writing these companies up in detail along with relevant views as they happen in the market. In our first equity Deep Dive, we reviewed Boss Energy which you can read here. The goal is for subscribers to have a thorough understanding of equities in our coverage list and what we believe a reasonable net asset value (NAV) as a head check against where shares are trading on the open market.
The Intangibles
The last category of research, while broad, will cover numerous topics that we rarely see discussed elsewhere. We call these, the ‘Intangibles” that include things like:
Inventory Analysis
Spot/Term Contracting Dynamics
Carry Trade Dynamics
Utility Procurement Behavior
Trader Behavior
Producer Marketing Strategies and Views
Agency Risk
Merger & Acquisition Views
Industry Conference Takeaways
The List Goes On…
We realize that the market will help shape what we publish. There will be no shortage of new narratives as the market evolves and will address these topics as they arise so our subscribers stay on the cutting edge of the uranium market. As always, we want to hear from our readers as the more feedback we get, the better we can serve you!
Click below to get full access to the newsletter and publication archives.
Bespoke Consulting
Golden Rock Research offers bespoke consulting to hedge funds, family offices, pension funds, endowments and uranium companies. If your firm would like to speak about your needs, please contact tim@goldenrockresearch.com.
Disclaimer & Disclosure
Golden Rock Research is not investment advice. Any assertions or commentary made in this publication solely represents the author’s opinion. Any written analysis or commentary on a commodity, futures contract or security is not a recommendation to buy or sell. We encourage readers to conduct their own research on any topic mentioned or written about. Seriously – you need to do your own due diligence beyond any research, analysis and commentary we provide.
