May 25th: Golden Rock Weekly Roundup

POTUS Signs E.O.'s, NXE's Q1 Concall, Urenco Expansion & TVA's SMR Application

May 25, 2025

President Trump Signs Four Executive Orders

The most important industry news was on Friday, May 23^rd, when President Trump signed four Executive Orders aimed at overhauling the nuclear energy sector. The directives seek to expedite reactor approvals, bolster domestic uranium mining, conversion and enrichment capacity and integrate nuclear energy into national security and AI infrastructure. As a result, uranium equities exploded upward on Thursday evening into Friday.

You can access all four Executive Orders at the links below:

Instead of going through each one in detail, let us simply take the most important pieces of information from each Executive Order and assess any nearby impacts to the market.

Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base

Within 240 days of this order (January 18, 2026), the Secretary of Energy in coordination with the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Transportation, and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), will prepare and submit to the President that includes:

National Policy to support the management of spent nuclear fuel
Evaluation of reprocessing and recycling of spent nuclear fuel
Transferring spent nuclear fuel to a government-owned, privately operated reprocessing and recycling facility
Reevaluation of historic and current nuclear reprocessing, separation, and storage facilities
Within 120 days, the Secretary of Energy, in consultation with the Chair of the NRC and Director of the OMB, will develop a plan to expand domestic uranium conversion capacity and expand enrichment capabilities to meet civilian and defense needs for LEU, HEU and HALEU. We covered the conversion market in detail in our Deep Dive #2. You can access it here.
Within 30 days, the Secretary of Energy, in coordination with the Attorney General and the Chairman of the FTC, will utilize the Defense Production Act of 1950 for the cooperative procurement of LEU and HALEU, including as needed by the Federal Government for tritium production, naval propulsion, and nuclear weapons

Funding for Restart, Completion, Uprate or Construction of Nuclear Plants

To maximize the speed and scale of new nuclear capacity, the Department of Energy shall prioritize work with the nuclear energy industry to facilitate 5 gigawatt of power uprates to existing nuclear reactors and have 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030
The Secretary of Energy will coordinate with the Secretary of Defense to assess the feasibility of restarting or repurposing closed nuclear power plants as energy hubs for military microgrid support, consistent with applicable law, focusing initially on installations with insufficient power resilience or grid fragility
Within 180 days, the Secretary of Energy, in coordination with the Administrator of the Small Business Administration, subject to the availability of appropriations, prioritize funding for qualified advanced nuclear technologies through grants, loans, investment capital, funding opportunities, and other Federal support.

At Golden Rock, we feel the most immediate impact this Executive Order can have on actual demand is the uprating of US reactors in the neighborhood of 5 GWe’s. In 2025, the United States total GWe output is 96.85-GWe’s, thus if implemented, it would increase total US output by ~5.2%. Power uprates have been a key source of US nuclear output increases in recent years even though several reactors have shut down. Before any Executive Orders, US nuclear power plants were already on track to see ~2.5GWe’s added through uprates between 2021 and 2032. This E.O. would come close to doubling the total uprates by 2030.

Source: nrc.gov

To learn more about power uprates, we recommend checking out the NRC’s website where they cover a litany of information around the subject.

https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/licensing/power-uprates.html

Obviously, it is extraordinary to hear the government wanting to see ten new large scale reactors begin construction by 2030. However, we are not optimistic that this will take place as it is not clear how this process would work, which utilities would construct them, and who would be responsible for the capital costs. Most importantly, we focus on who is providing the capital? Will the government be responsible? Partially responsible? Will there be a specific funding mechanism or new bill required to move ahead?

Ten new large scale reactors will cost at least $100B assuming everything goes perfectly. We do not see nuclear utilities racing ahead to build new greenfield reactors when Constellation wouldn’t even restart Three Mile Island unless they were handed a check to do so. The new builds have no impact to our demand models today nor do we expect this news to alter utility contracting behavior in anyway.

Given the timelines in the order, we suspect we will not have meaningful new details until the very end of 2025 or more likely, in January 2026.

Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

It begins by criticizing the NRC and their licensing timelines.

“Between 1954 and 1978, the United States authorized the construction of 133 since-completed civilian nuclear reactors at 81 power plants. Since 1978, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has authorized only a fraction of that number; of these, only two reactors have entered into commercial operation. The NRC charges applicants by the hour to process license applications, with prolonged timelines that maximize fees while throttling nuclear power development. The NRC has failed to license new reactors even as technological advances promise to make nuclear power safer, cheaper, more adaptable, and more abundant than ever.

This failure stems from a fundamental error: Instead of efficiently promoting safe, abundant nuclear energy, the NRC has instead tried to insulate Americans from the most remote risks without appropriate regard for the severe domestic and geopolitical costs of such risk aversion. The NRC utilizes safety models that posit there is no safe threshold of radiation exposure and that harm is directly proportional to the amount of exposure. Those models lack sound scientific basis and produce irrational results, such as requiring that nuclear plants protect against radiation below naturally occurring levels. A myopic policy of minimizing even trivial risks ignores the reality that substitute forms of energy production also carry risk, such as pollution with potentially deleterious health effects.”

The E.O. goes on to discuss what the Administration are seeking:

Reestablish the United States as the global leader in nuclear energy
Facilitate increased deployment of new nuclear reactor technologies, such as Generation III+ and IV reactors, modular reactors, and microreactors, including by lowering regulatory and cost barriers to entry
Facilitate the expansion of American nuclear energy capacity from approximately 100 GW in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050
Employ emerging technologies to safely accelerate the modeling, simulation, testing, and approval of new reactor designs
Support the continued operation of, and facilitate appropriate operational extensions for, the current nuclear fleet, as well as the reactivation of prematurely shuttered or partially completed nuclear facilities
Maintain the United States’ leading reputation for nuclear safety.

While an exciting headline, it simply is not possible that the US can expand from ~97 GWe’s today to 400 GWe’s by 2050 as it would requite adding 12 GWe’s (or about 10-12 large scale reactors per year starting now). Obviously, this is silly and shows that the Administration is just throwing numbers at wall to make a spectacle.

The rest of the E.O. goes on to discuss reforming the NRC’s structure and modernizing regulations. This could potentially be beneficial for speeding up reactor approval and permitting, but again, this is all a multi-year event that isn’t particularly relevant for nearby demand.

Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security

The E.O. begins by discussing what government wishes to see and do around advanced reactor technology:

“The Federal Government must utilize its full authority to accelerate the secure and responsible development, demonstration, deployment, and export of United States designed advanced nuclear technologies to bolster readiness and enhance American technological superiority. Additionally, the United States must further enhance our ability to export our nuclear technology to our allies and commercial partners, strengthening our shared ability to combat reliance on foreign adversaries through the use of safe, secure, and safeguarded nuclear technologies.”

The E.O. goes on to specify where advanced reactors can be utilized:

The Secretary of Defense, through the Secretary of the Army, shall commence the operation of a nuclear reactor, regulated by the United States Army, at a domestic military base or installation no later than September 30, 2028
The Secretary of Energy shall initiate the process for designating AI data centers within the 48 contiguous States and the District of Columbia, in whole or in part, that are located at or operated in coordination with Department of Energy facilities, including as support for national security missions, as critical defense facilities, where appropriate
Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Energy shall designate one or more sites owned or controlled by the Department of Energy within the United States, including national laboratories, for the use and deployment of advanced nuclear reactor technologies
The Secretary of Energy shall utilize all available legal authorities to site, approve, and authorize the design, construction, and operation of privately funded advanced nuclear reactor technologies at Department of Energy-owned or controlled sites for the purpose of powering AI infrastructure, other critical or national security needs, supply chain items, or on-site infrastructure. The Secretary of Energy shall prioritize early site preparation and authorization activities with a goal of operating an advanced nuclear reactor at the first site no later than 30 months from the date of this order.

The last piece of the E.O. discusses Promoting American Nuclear Exports:

Lead diplomatic engagement and negotiations for Agreements for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation pursuant to section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, 42 U.S.C. 2153 (123 Agreements)
Aggressively pursue at least 20 new 123 Agreements by the close of the 120th Congress to enable the United States nuclear industry to access new markets in partner countries
Aggressively renegotiate 123 Agreements set to expire within the next decade;
(iv) fully leverage the resources of the Federal Government to promote the United States nuclear industry in the development of commercial civil nuclear projects globally
Lead engagement with the Congress regarding the progress and reporting of negotiating 123 Agreements.
Optimizing the value of the United States International Development Finance Corporation to provide equity and other financing of American nuclear energy technology

We would love to see the United States start winning international bids for new reactors given large existing fleet but the reality is that we don’t build domestic reactors anymore and don’t have a systemized supply chain for an efficient build out. So, we think it will be somewhat challenging to win new business when the Chinese, Russians and South Koreans are all well ahead of the United States on international bids. We will wait to see if anything changes over the next couple of years.

There is no question that we admire the intent of these Executive Orders and will closely monitor developments in the coming months. However, until we see real bridges crossed, we are somewhat skeptical over the what actually moves forward.

Further, this throws an enormous wrench into the equities as there is no doubt, huge amounts of speculative and/or momentum capital has re-entered the space. We feel that without a corresponding move in the physical market, it will be difficult for equities to sustain this recent leg higher making us more more cautious today. We have seen this time and time again where an outside event spurs capital flows to uranium, only to see the excitement fade as there was no actual nearby change to the physical market.

Nexgen Q1 Conference Call

On Tuesday, May 20th, Nexgen Energy (NXE) held their Q1 quarterly conference call. The primary topics on the call were:

Rook 1 CNSC permitting dates are scheduled for November 19, 2025 and February 9-13, 2026
Drilling at Patterson Corridor East (PCE) continues

Nexgen disclosed they had received their CNSC Commission Hearing date on March 12, 2025. On this front, there isn’t much for the company or investors to do except wait for the dates to arrive. CEO Leigh Curyer expressed that they are ready to go as await the hearing dates. They currently hold C$435M in cash which can fund project development for ~12-18 months while the company stated they have financial interest for up to C$1.6B in project financing. According to Leigh, they are waiting until closer to year-end 2025 to determine the best financing path moving forward.

They also mentioned that they are “extremely busy negotiating term contracts” with utilities and the market should expect “additional agreements this year”. At Golden Rock, we remain somewhat confused about Nexgen’s marketing strategy. On one hand, they have one of the best development projects in the world and on the other, they hired a trading firm, WMC, to help market the pounds for them. We found this to be an odd development when it was announced and have not changed our view since. Who is leading these contract negotiations? Is it WMC? Is it management? Is it a mix of both? Will WMC be compensated in a manner that is aligned with shareholders or are they incentivized to just get deals completed? Since it is not disclosed in detail, the market will start speculate about this as we feel it should.

If one holds one of the best development projects on the planet, why would you outsource the marketing? Why would you even intimate that you need help marketing? As we have written in the past and firmly believe, the most important aspect of a uranium mining company is the marketing strategy as this is where the value is really created. We are not sure what to make of these developments and have a hard time understanding why they chose to do this.

Lastly, while most investors seem to blame utilities for lack of contracting, it’s time that investors begin holding developers more accountable for their words and actions. If you are a utility, you must have a very strong view on the development of Arrow and when it will come online. At Golden Rock, we absolutely think that Nexgen’s aggressive construction timeline talk is holding back utilities from contracting with other counter-parties in the market. Do we think this speeds up and slows down price discovery in the term market? Like others, we can only watch as management throws a wet blanket on the market and their own stock price.

We are excited to see how drilling results go on the currently scheduled 43,000 meter program at Patterson Corridor East (PCE). Drill hole RK-25-232 was reported to be the best intercept on the property with “ultra high-grade zones” 50 meters from RK-25-232. As a result, Nexgen has been able to double the mineralized footprint since the last update to 210m along strike and 335m vertically with the deposit open in all directions.

This is a really exciting development for the company. Are they sitting on another Arrow? Nobody knows today but clearly there is serious smoke emanating from the drill program so far. While early days, we continue to look forward to more results to get a better understanding of its size and scope.

As the market learns more about PCE, it will be fascinating to see what the company does. Do they try to spin this asset out into a separate entity? Keep it within the Nexgen portfolio? The rise of another potentially spectacular deposit in the Basin is brewing. We await for more details.

Urenco Launches First Phase of US Enrichment Plant Expansion

Urenco USA has begun production of low-enriched uranium (LEU) in its newest centrifuge cascade as part of the expansion project at its New Mexico enrichment facility. This is the first of several cascades planned to come online by 2027. Once this project is complete, it will expand capacity by 15%.

Capacity at Urenco’s New Mexico plant was 4.3M SWU (separative work units) with the overall expansion adding 700,000 SWU.

Urenco USA remains the only commercial producer of enriched uranium in the US. Urenco is also expanding its Almelo enrichment plant in the Netherlands and plans to build a facility with the capacity to produce up to 10 tons of high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) by 2031.

Currently, global SWU capacity is ~63.0M units.

TVA Submits Nation’s First Construction Permit Application for BWRX-300 SMR

On Tuesday, May 20^th, The Tennessee Valley Authority announced Tuesday that it is the first utility in the U.S. to submit a construction permit application for the GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy small modular reactor (SMR) BWRX-300 technology to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This construction permit application is TVA’s next step in pursuing an SMR at its Clinch River Site, near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and establishing America’s energy dominance to power artificial intelligence, quantum computing and advanced manufacturing.

“This is a significant milestone for TVA, our region and our nation because we are accelerating the development of new nuclear technology, its supply chain and delivery model to unleash American energy. TVA has put in the work to advance the design and develop the first application for the BWRX-300 technology, creating a path for other utilities who choose to build the same technology,” Don Moul, TVA President and CEO, said. “TVA looks forward to working with the Administration to accelerate advanced nuclear technologies that are key to our nation’s energy security. We believe deploying new nuclear is essential to providing American families and businesses affordable and abundant electricity for decades to come.”

Moul noted that America must lead the commercialization of affordable and abundant nuclear energy. TVA has the best path to deploying a commercial BWRX-300 SMR in the U.S. because the agency holds the nation’s first and only early site permit for SMRs from the NRC at its Clinch River site. In 2023, TVA joined a global collaboration to speed up the design and development of the BWRX-300 technology. Now, TVA is leading a strong coalition of industry partners in submitting an application for an $800M US Department of Energy grant to accelerate BWRX-300 development and seeking an $8 million DOE grant to support the NRC license review cost. TVA has already completed the Environmental Report for the Clinch River site and submitted it to the NRC. Preliminary SMR site preparation could begin as soon as 2026.

One final housekeeping note from us.

This week, we will be launching our paid subscriptions for $1,000/year or $125/month. We feel this is fantastic value for subscribers given our fundamental and numbers-based lens of the market.

We will be posting the first paid Deep Dive this coming Wednesday, May 28th where will we share our ‘Base-Case’ and ‘Alternative-Case’ Supply Model through 2040 followed up by Deep Dives on our Demand Model. We will be spending the first couple weeks on the fundamental S/D as this is the basis of the entire trade while continuing to cover different aspects of the industry and equities.

Every quarter, we will update our ‘Base-Case’ and ‘Alternative-Case’ using a variety of different inputs subscribers can see different scenarios as new information comes to the market and the models can be updated. We hope subscribers ultimately use these so you can build out your own S/D if you have different views than us.