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Mr anon's avatar

Thank you Tim, appreciate the work you do.

One thing I’m still trying to wrap my head around: you mentioned on a podcast this week that we probably won’t hit replacement rate contracting this year or next (or in the years after?) because there just isn’t enough supply available to contract. If coverage starts to lapse around 2028 and beyond, do you see utilities opting to pay up to shake loose more inventory, rather than signing contracts to bring new supply online?

I get that the answer is probably “both” to some degree, and that more supply will eventually show up — but have utilities kind of backed themselves into a corner by waiting this long? What, if anything, would stop a melt-up in the spot or mid-term market if utilities are basically signaling (by not locking in long-term contracts) that they’re willing to buy at any price from an increasingly illiquid and shrinking pool? How does this make any sense for fuel buyers?

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